GAME PREVIEW:
Auburn vs Arkansas
When: Saturday, September 21 2:30 PM (Central)
Where: Jordan-Hare
TV: ESPN 2
Season so far, I am 2-1 (Last week nailed the Auburn score)
This game can only be described as a showdown between two teams that are both professionally inconsistent. It promises to be a nail-biter—if only because no one can predict which side will remember how to play. They both have defenses that resemble Swiss cheese, and often neither offense could score even if the other team didn’t show up. Sometimes both teams look like they are ready to play football, other times they look like they just stumbled off Willie Nelson’s tour bus. The fanbases are split, some are praying for a miracle, and others are just hoping for less embarrassment than they have already felt this season. One thing’s for sure—someone must win. Although, if given the chance, they might find a way to both lose. New things do happen. I digress. Let’s see what we can come up with.
Watching film for this game was rougher than a pinecone toilet seat. Auburn looked great for one game against a local high school, pitiful against a minor competition bump, and then allowed one of, if not the worst team in FBS, to keep it close and score way too many points. They are mostly lowlights aside from some beautiful throws by Brown and runs by Hunter. Mostly, the turnovers jump out. Over and over.
Arkansas whipped one of their local high schools, lost to a decent team on the road, then struggled against UAB. Which is the University of Alabama, Birmingham campus. Not the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa campus. While it is easy to confuse the two, both being based in the ghetto, one has been much better at football, and the other has been much better at graduating useful human beings. Arkansas struggled against the one with the worse football team and better human beings. In the Oklahoma State game, they showed their ability to shut down one of the best running backs in the country, Ollie Gordon. That dude will play on Sundays soon and Arky sold out to stop the run in that game. They had a beautiful game plan and should be an undefeated team right now. So should Auburn. They shut down a very good CAL running back. However, both teams “mistaked” their way to a loss.
Both schools look like they are prepared for SEC play. If by prepared you mean both teams are ready to go hit individuals from other institutions of higher learning. Other than that, I have nothing other than questions. Has the QB1 change to Hank Brown turned Auburn into the offense we expected or was that a one off against the nation's worst defense? Is Arkansas QB1 Taylor Green capable of completing a forward pass? We have established he can run the ball if given the edge. Arkansas also has an outstanding running back in Ja'Quinden Jackson. Both those guys are huge and can run. I would assume Auburn will sell-out to take the run away. Auburn has the size and talent to stop them. Will they? Or will the defense look like last week's infuriating “Hey let’s take our best players away from the line of scrimmage and look like garbage, and hell, we might as well not cover the middle of the field either” approach?
I am going to.... hope... that both teams have more than they have put on film. Well, I am going to hope Auburn does. I am fine with Arkansas doing Arkansas things. They do love losing to Auburn, by a lot. We call it the Malzahn effect.
Anyway, the Auburn offense should be fine with what Arkansas can do defensively. The matchups are a nightmare for the Hogs at nearly every skill position. If Cam is back, I honestly don’t think they can handle Auburn’s WR corps at all. If they try to stack the box to stop the run, and they do love the cover zero with no safety help and go tight man, Hank Brown should be able to eat. They might be able to heat Brown up a bit with a blitz here and there, I don’t think they can rattle him. Transversely, the Auburn defense, if Kayin Lee comes back, should be able to man up and stop the run. The game plan for both defenses this week is going to be “Make that quarterback prove he can throw the ball”. That benefits Auburn. Hank Brown can throw. Green hasn’t looked that comfortable in the same situation. In fact, Green has looked very susceptible to throwing interceptions when forced into passing situations. That is what this game boils down to. Which defense will get the turnovers? If both teams show up with the defenses playing like they have so far, well, the scoreboard operator at Jordan-Hare will have to be like an ugly girl on her honeymoon... busy.
So, I must make a pick here. The line has not moved off Auburn being the 3 ½ point favorite at all this week. Meaning there is either no action or the action must be near equal. Three points is usually the home field advantage for those slick Vegas dudes. They seem to think this game is darn near un-pickable as well.
So, thinking of that, I must look at the “x- factor” of how important this game is to both schools. Whichever team loses this game, is at critical mass for the season. Both teams have brutal five game stretches after this. If Arkansas wins this game, it will cool off Sam Pittman’s hot seat just a little. If they lose, this team is legit staring a 2- 6 record as a start. And it probably doesn’t get better for the last four games either. If Auburn wins, 8-4 or 7-5 are both on the table. Auburn loses this game; it might struggle to become bowl eligible. I know there are ex-coaches from both schools on staff at the other school, I don’t really know how much that ever plays into anything other than story lines for sportswriters.
Cards on the table, even though it feels like Auburn hasn’t had a good season since the Dead Sea was just sick, there is a feeling that the momentum is in our favor. Recruiting depends on it. The war chest depends on it. The fanbase needs it. I realize this is all part of the Freeze three-year plan, but I still think we will improve this year.
Our Tigers win this one at home behind another good performance from Hank Brown, 31-21.
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Matthew is an experienced sportswriter who has joined Barner Supply as the managing editor, bringing with him a rich background in sports journalism. With a career spanning major outlets like Sports Illustrated and ESPN, Matthew has built a reputation for insightful coverage of teams across the Southeast. His deep dives into the Auburn Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Memphis Grizzlies, and Tennessee Titans have earned him a loyal following, known for his sharp analysis and engaging storytelling. At Barner Supply, Matthew looks forward to continuing his tradition of excellence, delivering compelling stories and expert commentary to a more focused audience. He can be found on 𝕏 @Mindful_Legacy
